EURUSD might rise towards 1.01 if inflation eases faster than expected – Commerzbank

Today, all eyes will be on US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) print. If inflation eases more than expected, the EURUUSD pair could advance towards 1.01, economists at Commerzbank report.

The Dollar is no longer a highflyer

“Inflation is likely to have eased a little. Data in line with market expectations is unlikely to support the Dollar notably any longer, on the contrary: if inflation eases even faster contrary than expected, EURUSD might rise towards 1.01 again. The Dollar is no longer the highflyer it was over the past months.”

“Things would look differently if surprisingly inflation rates had not eased or even risen further. This would lead to increased speculation that Fed interest rates would peak at even higher levels than currently expected and that we might have to face another big step in December. Surprisingly high inflation data would therefore cause the Dollar to rise and EURUSD to fall back below parity.”

See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 13 major banks, inflation coming down only slowly