China will not catch up with the United States – Natixis

One stated aim of China’s economic policy is to become the world’s leading economic power, in theory by 2049. But this will not happen. In actual fact, China will lose ground to the United States, according to analysts at Natixis.

China will grow less than the United States

“China will grow less than the United States due to: Population ageing (which will lead China’s labour force to decline by 33% relative to the United States by 2050); Declining labour productivity, due to labour force ageing and the preference accorded to state-owned enterprises; Structural excess savings, due in particular to real estate wealth loss.”

“One could think that US GDP will grow at least 30% more than China’s out to 2050, in constant dollars.”