EUR/USD to trend weaker again – Commerzbank

High inflation rates in the eurozone hardly move the euro at all. Economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/USD pair to trend lower again.

Even the smallest inflation shock could cause an unfortunate dynamic

“As inflation expectations have already become de-anchored from the 2% target, I fear that even the smallest inflation shock could cause an unfortunate dynamic. That is, even more, the case if the market assumes that the ECB will not hike its interest rates sufficiently strongly in reaction to higher inflation rates because it is taking the economy into consideration.”

“Sooner or later the euro is likely to trend weaker again, particularly against the US dollar, as the market considers the Fed to be much more committed in its fight against inflation.”