US Dollar Index could break the 110-115 range to the upside – SocGen

After closing the previous week on a firm footing on the upbeat US September jobs report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extends its gains. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, believes that the index could break above the 115 level.

No new news, but no reason to sell the dollar either

“In the aftermath of the US labour market report, and ahead of US CPI data on Thursday, we are left largely just reacting to known news. The US jobs data are strong enough to make a 75 bps Nov 2 hike pretty much a done deal; The Chinese economy is weak; the war in Ukraine goes on. The result: The dollar remains bid, though not wildly so.” 

“Positioning isn’t stretched according to the CFTC data, but the message from custodian banks suggests this may understate how many long dollar positions there are at any one point in time. Certainly, there is nothing that argues for building dollar shorts.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if DXY spent the rest of the year trading 110-115, but if it breaks one way or the other, the upside is the more vulnerable.”